Super Bowl Preview

While the Super Bowl is primarily about gorging on food and alcohol while watching commercials that cost millions to air, there is also a game played in which billions are wagered. Lets focus on that.....

Indianapolis (-7) vs. Chicago

Passing Offense: The Colts have one of the most prolific and consistent passing attacks of all time. Peyton Manning leads his team in a very precise and efficient manner although there are questions about how he will react on such a big stage when his previous big game experience has been less than stellar. I believe he will play pretty well (15-24 for 260 with 1 TD and 1 INT or so), but may be limited by a lack of possession brought on by the Bears rushing and short passing attack.
The Bears have a much more limited passing attack with both a lack of quality receivers and an inexperienced and inaccurate QB. The Bears will likely utilize a scaled-down offense focusing on short dumps to the backs and passes to the TE. An occasional deep-ball to Musin will break up this monotony and the results of these deep shots (which Rex throws surprisingly accurately) may determine the final outcome of the game.

Rushing Offense: The Colts have had a more potent rushing attack than the Bears, and have been even better over the second half of the season since they made the decision to make Addai their primary back and use Rhodes as a change-of-pace guy. The Colts however, limped to the finish line this season with a loss to the Texans as well as a near loss against Miami. Inside the numbers, their rushing attack has also been far less effective on grass fields and on the road away from the friendly confines of Indy where they were undefeated.
The Bears have a nice two back combo with Benson and Jones. The Bears stick to the traditional mantra of run it till they stop ya and I fully expect this philosophy to continue on Sunday as they attempt to milk clock, keep the ball out of Peyton's hands and exploit the Colts greatest weakness (run defense) all by essentially playing smashmouth football. The Colts ability to stop the Bears' rushing attack without stacking eight in the box on 1st and 2nd downs is the most important variable in handicapping the game.

Defense: The Colts have a decent defense that has played quite well during the playoffs. Their major drawback is of course their run-stopping ability (or lack thereof) which made them the laughingstock of the league for several weeks, primarily after Jacksonville "exposed" them by gashing them for over 300 yards rushing in a blowout win. Indy has played much better of late, especially in impressive wins vs. Baltimore and the Chiefs during their playoff run. The catalyst seems to be the return of Bob Sanders who the team seems to feed off of.
The Bears have one of the top two defenses in the league (Baltimore) and are especially deep with the fastest LB duo in the league and a ball-hawking secondary. The only weakness they have shown is an inability to stop the run in some games. While extremely fast, they are slightly undersized up the gut and can be exploited in that manner by some teams. Fortunately for them, the Colts favor traps and runs to the outside which will play right into their strengths. The Colts will have an extremely hard time establishing the run against Chicago.

Special Teams: The Colts have a strong kick and punt return attack but struggle at stopping other teams at times. They also have Adam Vinateri who is the greatest clutch kicker of all time. The Bears have Devin Hester who is usually good for one or two huge returns a game. I would expect this trend to continue with Hester breaking at least one return for 50+ yards at some point. They also have a solid kicker.

Overall: If this game was played on turf I would pick the Colts in a blowout. Due to the location and the fact it is being played on grass however, makes this a much closer game. The Bears plan of attack coincides with the Colts' greatest weakness, and this is another key factor. I see this as being a very closely contested game where a final drive may decide the outcome. Either a Manning touchdown for the win or a pickoff by the Bears to ice the game. For those of you playing monopoly money on the game, I would recommend a small wager on the Bears to win coupled with a much larger bet on the Bears to cover as this is not the type of team likely to be beaten by more than a touchdown on a grass field.

Prediction: Colts 28 Bears 23